{
  "schema_version": "homepage-position/v1",
  "as_of": "2026-08-09",
  "target_event": "fixed_boundary_real_AI_market_peak_already_passed_by_as_of",
  "direct_target_identified": false,
  "estimate": {
    "state": "late_expansion_before_confirmed_peak",
    "label_ko": "후기 확장 — 고점 이전",
    "peak_already_passed": "disfavored_by_current_evidence",
    "confidence": "low_to_moderate_judgmental_not_calibrated",
    "numeric_probability": null
  },
  "modal_peak_window": {
    "start_months": 12,
    "end_months": 24,
    "calendar_start": "2027-08-09",
    "calendar_end": "2028-08-09"
  },
  "plain_language": "Observed AI usage, physical data-center input, commercial capacity absorption, selected AI-cloud monetization and advanced equipment absorption are still expanding. Deceleration in Ireland and unusually large supplier ecosystem financing make late expansion more plausible than early expansion, but do not establish a completed peak.",
  "evidence": [
    {
      "cluster_id": "realized_ai_usage",
      "clock": "R",
      "timing_role": "coincident",
      "predictive_admission": "admitted",
      "direct_target_status": "partial_multi_surface_proxy",
      "roles": [
        "continuation"
      ],
      "current_observation": "OpenRouter July complete-month tokens rose 31.9% MoM and August 1-8 tokens were 34.5% above July 1-8; Google direct API rose from more than 16B to about 22B tokens per minute in 2026Q2; AWS Bedrock nearly doubled MoM in March and processed more tokens in 2026Q1 than all prior years combined.",
      "reason": "Several direct AI usage surfaces are still expanding. They do not cover the market, but broad post-peak contraction is less compatible with simultaneous growth across these surfaces.",
      "counter_hypotheses": [
        "provider share gains while the total market contracts",
        "tokenizer and model mix inflate token counts",
        "intermediate API demand rises while final economic value falls",
        "free or subsidized usage grows without paid final demand"
      ],
      "source_artifacts": [
        "research/openrouter-usage-shadow-v1.json",
        "research/cross-provider-realized-use-audit-v1.json"
      ]
    },
    {
      "cluster_id": "data_center_physical_input",
      "clock": "R_proxy",
      "timing_role": "coincident_to_lagging",
      "predictive_admission": "admitted",
      "direct_target_status": "physical_input_mixed_AI_non_AI",
      "roles": [
        "continuation",
        "late_pressure"
      ],
      "current_observation": "Google data-center electricity rose 38.4% in 2025 and Meta rose 20.6% in 2024 with stable-to-improving PUE. Ireland data-centre electricity reached a record 1,991 GWh in 2025Q4, while YoY growth slowed from 36.3% in 2022Q4 to 8.8%.",
      "reason": "The physical input level is still rising, arguing against a completed broad use peak, while Ireland's marked deceleration is compatible with a maturing or late expansion.",
      "counter_hypotheses": [
        "non-AI workload growth explains electricity",
        "capacity migration into observed fleets offsets contraction elsewhere",
        "electricity rises because efficiency gains slow",
        "Ireland is not representative of the global market"
      ],
      "source_artifacts": [
        "research/hyperscaler-electricity-audit-v1.json",
        "research/realized-use-candidates-v1.json",
        "research/ireland-mec02-probe.mjs"
      ]
    },
    {
      "cluster_id": "commercial_capacity_absorption",
      "clock": "K",
      "timing_role": "coincident_to_lagging",
      "predictive_admission": "admitted",
      "direct_target_status": "commercial_capacity_not_metered_use",
      "roles": [
        "continuation"
      ],
      "current_observation": "Digital Realty occupied MW rose 9.1% YoY with occupancy up 0.5pp in 2026Q2; Equinix billed cabinets rose 5.2% with utilization unchanged at 78%.",
      "reason": "Capacity continued to be commercially absorbed rather than showing broad vacancy or utilization collapse.",
      "counter_hypotheses": [
        "leases are signed but capacity is not actively used",
        "AI growth is offset by non-AI colocation contraction",
        "portfolio acquisitions create apparent growth",
        "long leases lag the economic turning point"
      ],
      "source_artifacts": [
        "research/reit-capacity-utilization-audit-v1.json"
      ]
    },
    {
      "cluster_id": "ai_cloud_monetization",
      "clock": "M",
      "timing_role": "coincident_to_lagging",
      "predictive_admission": "admitted",
      "direct_target_status": "nominal_selected_provider_panel",
      "roles": [
        "continuation"
      ],
      "current_observation": "The balanced CoreWeave, Nebius AI Cloud and IREN cloud panel rose every comparable quarter; 2026Q1 nominal revenue was 143.6% above 2025Q1.",
      "reason": "Selected high-AI-purity providers still show rapid monetization growth, which is less compatible with an already completed market-wide peak.",
      "counter_hypotheses": [
        "share shifts toward the selected providers",
        "price and committed contracts rise while real usage slows",
        "acquisitions change scope",
        "intermediate compute revenue is counted rather than final demand"
      ],
      "source_artifacts": [
        "research/ai-native-cloud-shadow-v1.json"
      ]
    },
    {
      "cluster_id": "advanced_semicap_equipment",
      "clock": "K_input",
      "timing_role": "leading",
      "predictive_admission": "admitted",
      "direct_target_status": "upstream_mixed_semiconductor_capital_input",
      "roles": [
        "continuation"
      ],
      "current_observation": "Japan's 848620 equipment exports to the United States rose 77.3% in value and 49.2% in mass in June 2026. The broad value-per-kg spike was partly mix, but the dominant category strengthened in both value and physical mass.",
      "reason": "Strong physical absorption of semiconductor-process equipment is a leading continuation signal for capacity formation, though not AI-exclusive demand.",
      "counter_hypotheses": [
        "non-AI semiconductor fab demand dominates",
        "one-month shipment timing and disassembly distort mass",
        "inventory accumulation precedes an oversupply peak",
        "US destination does not identify final equipment use"
      ],
      "source_artifacts": [
        "research/japan-us-equipment-mix-audit-v1.json"
      ]
    },
    {
      "cluster_id": "vendor_financing_fragility",
      "clock": "F_M",
      "timing_role": "leading_risk",
      "predictive_admission": "provisional",
      "direct_target_status": "single_issuer_financing_proxy",
      "roles": [
        "late_pressure"
      ],
      "current_observation": "NVIDIA non-marketable equity investments divided by TTM revenue moved from a long 1.8%-2.6% band to 4.37%, 10.30% and 16.70%; the latest historical rank interval was 92.9%-100%.",
      "reason": "Customer and ecosystem financing can sustain demand after self-funded economics weaken, so it raises late-cycle fragility without proving that the level peak has already occurred.",
      "counter_hypotheses": [
        "strategic investments reflect option value rather than weak customer funding",
        "the balance includes firms that are not customers",
        "one supplier is not the global financing system",
        "equity appreciation and acquisition accounting change the balance"
      ],
      "source_artifacts": [
        "HANDOFF.md",
        "src/collectors.js"
      ]
    },
    {
      "cluster_id": "generator_project_cancellation",
      "clock": "K_supply",
      "timing_role": "leading_or_coincident_if_cause_known",
      "predictive_admission": "unavailable",
      "direct_target_status": "authoritative_supply_inventory_without_current_event_flow_or_customer_cause",
      "roles": [
        "unavailable"
      ],
      "current_observation": "EIA supplies a combined canceled-or-indefinitely-postponed stock, but no monthly CN/IP split, effective date, reason, offtaker, PPA, data-center or AI attribution. The May-June stock diff contains both entries and exits.",
      "reason": "This source may become predictive after vintage transitions and customer/cause enrichment; it is not assigned a sign from the current stock snapshot.",
      "counter_hypotheses": [
        "supply constraints or policy cause cancellation while AI demand remains strong",
        "projects leave the combined stock because of corrections or revival",
        "non-data-center generation dominates the inventory"
      ],
      "source_artifacts": [
        "research/eia-generator-cancellation-audit-v1.json"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "sensitivity": {
    "without_realized_usage": "leans_not_passed_but_single_R_family",
    "without_physical_input": "leans_not_passed_but_single_R_family",
    "without_both_R_families": "unresolved",
    "if_all_upstream_K_M_reverse": "mixed"
  },
  "flip_conditions": [
    "Both realized-usage and physical-input families flatten or fall across new independent periods",
    "Commercial capacity absorption turns down while vacancy or utilization deterioration broadens",
    "Contract cancellations become customer-attributed and broaden across providers and regions",
    "Monetization remains high while physical use falls, indicating price, financing or inventory divergence"
  ],
  "assumptions": [
    "The current expansion direction in realized usage and physical input contains information about the real-market target even though neither has complete global coverage.",
    "Ireland electricity deceleration and supplier ecosystem financing are distinct late-cycle pressures, not direct proof of a completed peak.",
    "A broad market peak normally requires leading pressure to transmit into at least one realized-usage family; a financial or upstream reversal alone is not the target event.",
    "No exogenous policy, war, grid or supply shock abruptly changes the current causal ordering.",
    "The 12-to-24-month timing judgment is an explicit expert prior based on observation cadence and transmission, not an estimate calibrated from completed AI cycles."
  ],
  "watch_calendar": [
    {
      "watch_id": "openrouter_daily_usage",
      "cluster_id": "realized_ai_usage",
      "clock": "R",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-08-07",
      "cadence": "daily_completed_UTC_day",
      "schedule_status": "continuous",
      "scheduled_at": null,
      "source_url": "https://openrouter.ai/docs/api/api-reference/datasets/daily-token-totals-for-top-50-models"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "provider_usage_disclosures",
      "cluster_id": "realized_ai_usage",
      "clock": "R",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-06-30",
      "cadence": "quarterly_or_irregular_provider_disclosure",
      "schedule_status": "event_driven",
      "scheduled_at": null,
      "source_url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/default.aspx"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "ireland_cso_2026",
      "cluster_id": "data_center_physical_input",
      "clock": "R_proxy",
      "latest_period_end": "2025-12-31",
      "cadence": "annual",
      "schedule_status": "annual_unannounced",
      "scheduled_at": null,
      "source_url": "https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/energy/datacentresmeteredelectricityconsumption/"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "hyperscaler_electricity_reports",
      "cluster_id": "data_center_physical_input",
      "clock": "R_proxy",
      "latest_period_end": "2025-12-31",
      "cadence": "annual_ragged",
      "schedule_status": "unannounced",
      "scheduled_at": null,
      "source_url": "https://sustainability.google/reports/"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "coreweave_2026q2",
      "cluster_id": "ai_cloud_monetization",
      "clock": "M",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-03-31",
      "cadence": "quarterly",
      "schedule_status": "scheduled",
      "scheduled_at": "2026-08-11T21:00:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://investors.coreweave.com/overview/"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "nebius_2026q2",
      "cluster_id": "ai_cloud_monetization",
      "clock": "M",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-03-31",
      "cadence": "quarterly",
      "schedule_status": "scheduled",
      "scheduled_at": "2026-08-12T12:00:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://nebius.com/investor-events/q2-financial-results-and-live-webcast"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "iren_fy26",
      "cluster_id": "ai_cloud_monetization",
      "clock": "M",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-03-31",
      "cadence": "quarterly_fiscal",
      "schedule_status": "unannounced",
      "scheduled_at": null,
      "source_url": "https://iren.com/investors/presentations"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "digital_realty_2026q3",
      "cluster_id": "commercial_capacity_absorption",
      "clock": "K",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-06-30",
      "cadence": "quarterly",
      "schedule_status": "unannounced",
      "scheduled_at": null,
      "source_url": "https://investor.digitalrealty.com/news-events/events"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "equinix_2026q3",
      "cluster_id": "commercial_capacity_absorption",
      "clock": "K",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-06-30",
      "cadence": "quarterly",
      "schedule_status": "unannounced",
      "scheduled_at": null,
      "source_url": "https://investor.equinix.com/news-events/ir-calendar"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "japan_trade_2026_07_detailed",
      "cluster_id": "advanced_semicap_equipment",
      "clock": "K_input",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-06-30",
      "cadence": "monthly_detailed_export",
      "schedule_status": "scheduled",
      "scheduled_at": "2026-08-28T00:30:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/calendar/calend_e.htm"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "nvidia_fy27q2",
      "cluster_id": "vendor_financing_fragility",
      "clock": "F_M",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-04-26",
      "cadence": "quarterly",
      "schedule_status": "scheduled",
      "scheduled_at": "2026-08-26T20:20:00Z",
      "source_url": "https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Sets-Conference-Call-for-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx"
    },
    {
      "watch_id": "eia_860m_2026_07",
      "cluster_id": "generator_project_cancellation",
      "clock": "K_supply",
      "latest_period_end": "2026-06-30",
      "cadence": "monthly_preliminary_inventory",
      "schedule_status": "scheduled",
      "scheduled_at": "2026-08-26",
      "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/"
    }
  ],
  "automatic_production_mutation": false,
  "methodology": {
    "calibration_status": "not_calibrated_to_completed_AI_cycle",
    "aggregation_policy": "causal_clock_and_dependence_groups_never_raw_unit_counts",
    "numeric_probability": null
  }
}